Prices will fall in 2023, but drivers will have to be prepared for higher costs in the long term, says automotive expert Stefan Bratzel, Professor of Automotive Management at Bergisch Gladbach University of Applied Sciences and Director of the Center of Automotive Management (CAM).
Will cars continue to get more expensive in the future?
Stephen Bratzel: What we are witnessing at the moment is a spike that will flatten out again. In the course of the expected recession in 2023, demand will decrease, while supply chain problems should calm down. I assume that things will calm down in the second half of the new year, by 2024 at the latest: Vehicles will become more available again, prices will fall from the current top level. In principle, however, we have to get used to a higher level of costs. In the longer term, automobility will become more expensive, regardless of the special influences.
Why will that be?
For example, custom headlights for cars tends to become more expensive. We’re going back to regionalization. In favor of greater supply chain security, globalization is being scaled back and stocks are being replenished. There are also environmental costs, such as those for CO2. With electromobility, the acquisition costs are generally higher. And the state will also ensure that automobility does not become cheaper.
We already have a tendency to increase parking fees in cities, and parking for residents is also becoming more expensive. I think it is a realistic scenario that we will have bonus-malus rules in the next five to ten years, so that vehicles that pollute more heavily will be taxed more heavily.
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